1) Grudge match stands between Albania and first finals
Back in October 2014 while Serbia were taking on Albania, Ismail Morina piloted a drone into the Partizan Stadium in Belgrade. Dangling beneath the drone was a large flag bearing the Albanian black eagle. Serbia’s Stefan Mitrovic made a grab for it. And all hell broke loose.
Players brawled, ultras invaded the pitch and the game was abandoned. A Belgrade visit from the Albanian prime minister, the first for 68 years, had to be postponed. Serbia were initially awarded a 3-0 win but deducted three points. The court of arbitration for sport, however, disagreed and this summer awarded the 3-0 win to Albania, leaving the Red and Blacks with a very real chance of reaching their first ever major finals. It would be some achievement – in 21 previous attempts they’ve finished bottom of their qualifying group 11 times and second-bottom eight times.
Reports suggest 2,000 police officers will stand guard at the Elbasan Arena. Tickets are changing hands at €500 a piece. Morina was, on Wednesday, arrested as part of the security operation around the game – two guns and 36 match tickets were seized too. The atmosphere is likely to be rather spicy. With Portugal and, in their final game, Denmark, the top two in Group I, meeting in Braga on the same evening Albania could secure a spot at Euro 2016 with a win. If they manage it, it’ll be an achievement on a par with that of Iceland.
2) Wales a point away from qualification
Wales need just one point from their two matches against Bosnia Herzegovina on Saturday or Andorra on Tuesday night to qualify for a first major tournament since 1958. Though they have never beaten Bosnia, Wales must have some confidence of earning that point in Zenica given they have only conceded two goals in eight Group B qualifying matches and can include a fit-again Gareth Bale in their side. Stopping Bosnia from finding the back of the net will be crucial as this side have something of a habit of scoring a lot when they get going: in their last five matches they have scored three on three occasions, while Edin Dzeko has seven goals in seven Euro 2016 qualifying appearances.
Last October, though, Bosnia and Herzegovina could not score against Wales largely thanks to an impressive display by Wayne Hennessey in goal. The Crystal Palace goalkeeper produced a string of remarkable stops that included a triple save early in the second half and a stunning diving effort to stop a Miralem Pjanic free-kick, as an injury-hit Wales side secured a 0-0 draw. They might need him to repeat the performance if they are to secure qualification on Saturday.
3) Can Northern Ireland get over the line?
No top seed has ever finished bottom of a European Championship qualifying group. Greece are on course to become the first. And it is the team who have lost twice to the Faroe Islands who visit Belfast on Thursday with Northern Ireland on the verge of their first major finals since 1986. Greece may be utterly deflated but Michael O’Neill has his problems too, the chief of which is the absence of leading scorer Kyle Lafferty – only Robert Lewandowski and Thomas Müller have scored more goals in qualifying than the Norwich striker – but the absence of Jonny Evans against Greece at least is also a blow.
Josh Magennis could deputise up front, while Craig Cathcart and Paddy McNair could form the central defensive pair. Two draws will be enough to get Northern Ireland over the line but one single blow against Greece on him soil would obviously be the preferred option. It would be such a shame if they stumbled now.
4) Republic of Ireland face nervous run-in
Martin O’Neill described Germany’s 1-1 draw with the Republic of Ireland as a hiccup for the world champions and admitted that his side’s opponents in Dublin on Thursday night are “very strong”, feature “class players” and that “it’s a very difficult game for us.” He added that his side ought to be “as positive as possible”. Presumably that’s a do as he says, not as he does instruction. But then it’s easy to see why he’s worried.
His side have back-to-back matches against the world champions and Poland who, in Müller and Lewandowski feature Euro 2016 qualifying’s leading scorers, while he will be without Seamus Coleman (injured) and Glenn Whelan and James McClean (suspended) while Marc Wilson and Wes Hoolahan are carrying injuries too. Robbie Keane – unless, of course, he is breastfeeding – will only have had a day with the squad after the birth of his second son. Ireland are four points ahead of Scotland as both teams vie for the third-placed finish in Group D that would offer them the chance to qualify for Euro 2016 via the play-offs. Should Scotland get a point or more against Poland, then things could look pretty worrying pretty quickly for Ireland.
5) Could Griffiths give Scotland more thrust up front?
There are two ways for Scotland to qualify for the Euro 2016 play-offs: the first is by beating both Poland and Gibraltar and then hoping Poland also lose to the Republic of Ireland. The second is by picking up four more points than the Republic of Ireland do over the next two matches – so, in all likelihood, that would mean Scotland drawing with Poland and beating Gibraltar at the very least. If that looks ominous for Scotland, then more ominous still is the fact they will be facing Lewandowski at the sharp end of a Polish attack that has hit 29 goals in eight Group D matches. Lewandowski is responsible for 10 of those and has scored 12 times in his last four club matches. “We understand there are some right good players in the Polish side,” said the Scotland manager Gordon Strachan.
His tactic for countering Lewandowski is to deny Poland the ball. It seems unlikely that will work for long, so if Scotland cannot prevent Poland from scoring, they must also match them at the other end in order to secure a vital draw. Strachan – who is without the winger Ikechi Anya, Charlie Mulgrew and James Morrison – has preferred Steven Fletcher as his striker so far but he has only scored three in eight for Scotland and two in 10 for Sunderland. Given the potential need for goals, might Strachan be better turning to Celtic’s Leigh Griffiths who is in a rich vein of scoring form for his club?
6) Norway look to defy expectations again
Over the past 20 years or so, Norway have developed something of a habit for subverting expectations in qualifying for major tournaments. They were in the fourth pot for the draw for the 1994 World Cup but finished top of a group including England, Holland and Poland. They were ranked as the third best team in Europe when the qualifying draw was made for the 2002 World Cup but finished fourth in their group behind Ukraine, Poland and Belarus. Prior to the 2006 tournament they were back in pot four but managed to reach the playoffs then they were somehow back among the top seeds before the 2014 edition and ended up miles off the pace behind Switzerland, Iceland and Slovenia.
This time around the Norwegians were in the third group of seeds and were drawn in a tough group, with Croatia and Italy expected to comfortably secure the two two spots. Instead Norway are in pole position to secure a qualification spot and could even take top spot if they follow up what should be a win over Malta with an unlikely but far from impossible win over Italy.
Per-Mathias Hogmo, in his first full qualifying campaign as coach, pronounced that the plan for the campaign was to attack “almost in a 2-2-4-2” but defensive solidity has been the key – a five-goal hammering in Zagreb back in March apart. In the other seven games they have conceded only three times and a couple more clean sheets for Hogmo’s youthful side – the most capped player in the squad for this decisive double header is goalkeeper Rune Jarstein, who has 38 – should see them to their first finals since Euro 2000.
7) Can Gibraltar avoid an unwanted piece of history?
Gibraltar’s first ever qualification campaign has so far resulted in eight defeats out of eight, just two goals scored and 46 goals against. The continental wooden spoon for this tournament seems likely if not certain – Andorra, the only other side with a 100% losing record, face Belgium and Wales in their final two fixtures but have a much healthier goal difference of -27 – but are they on course for the worst ever Euro qualifying campaign?
Possibly. You can take your pick between two San Marino campaigns for the current low mark: the 2008 campaign which saw them lose 12 out of 12, scoring twice and conceding 57, or the 2012 version in which they lost 10 out of 10, failed to score and conceded 53 times. Gibraltar face Georgia in Tbilisi and then Scotland in the Algarve – it’s been a bumpy start to international life but they still have something to fight for.
8) Estonia game gives Hodgson a chance to experiment
Estonia can still qualify for Euro 2016 but will need to beat both England, who are already qualified as Group E’s winners, and the group’s second placed side Switzerland to do so, which seems a tall order. England are unbeaten in their last 18 qualifying matches at home while Estonia are without a win in their last seven competitive matches away and have not scored in the last five of those. With the pressure off, it gives Roy Hodgson the perfect opportunity to experiment with his side. He has said that is more likely to happen in the second fixture against Lithuania allowing him to test fringe players before he firms up a first team squad for the showcase friendlies against Spain and France in November. With Dele Alli in the squad for the first time and Theo Walcott pushing for an opportunity to play through the middle and with Wayne Rooney, Danny Ings, Jonjo Shelvey and John Stones carrying various injuries and niggles, this could be a chance for someone to impress.
9) Cech’s presence could hold balance of power in Group A
Both the Czech Republic and Iceland are through to the finals in France, meaning one of Turkey or Holland will certainly miss out and the other will have to qualify via the play-offs. In a qualifying format that has opened the doors for many supposedly inferior nations, it is mildly baffling that Holland, two points adrift of third-placed Turkey and with a worse head-to-head record, must travel to Kazakhstan desperate for three points so that they can keep alive their play-off hopes.
The Czech Republic could well hold the balance of power in Group A. Both Turkey and Holland must play them in their closing two matches, with Turkey having the first go at it. But with qualification secure, the Czech coach Pavel Vrba has said he will be resting key players and picking those who have not had much of a chance so far in qualifying. Petr Cech will certainly miss one of the matches. It means either Turkey or Holland could get lucky and face his understudy, while the other will fume if they are unlucky enough to face one of the world’s best goalkeepers. There could yet be some bitter post match sniping if proves the difference between qualification and ignominy.
10) Montenegro lurk should Russia or Sweden slip up
Both Sweden and Russia have made heavy weather of qualifying for Euro 2016 and there is still a slim chance one of them could miss out to fourth-placed Montenegro. Russia are second in Group G and their qualifying run has included a draw at home to the bottom side Moldova, an abandoned match against Montenegro and two defeats to the group winners Austria. They face both Moldova and Montenegro again and will be wary that any slip against the latter, who feature Stevan Jovetic and Mirko Vucinic, could see them drop out of the automatic qualification spot in place of Sweden.
The Swedes, meanwhile, endured a miserable last round of matches, losing to both Austria and Russia but have two final games against the group’s two weakest teams, Moldova and Liechtenstein. With an inferior head-to-head record against Russia, they must strive for two victories and hope Russia lose in order avoid the play-offs (or worse). Should they slip up, Montenegro could be in a position to secure a play-off spot ahead of them and then battle for their first European Championship qualification since the country’s independence in 2006.
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