2016 has to start here for Nico Rosberg
In the words of Sir Patrick Head, his former boss at Williams, Nico Rosberg faces a long winter.
The title has been lost and so, judging by his petulant cap-throwing response to Lewis Hamilton's US GP victory, has Nico's poise. In Mexico, Brazil and Abu Dhabi, Rosberg faces three reputationally-defining races which will determine just how bleak a winter awaits.
Either Rosberg bounces back immediately and proves he can beat Hamilton or he risks lurching into a number two role at Mercedes that could possess the rancid whiff of permanency if a continued Ferrari resurgence in 2016 forces Mercedes to favour one of their two drivers.
Rosberg didn't merely look dejected on Sunday in Austin, he looked lost. In her latest diary entry, Rachel Brookes notes that Rosberg's 'body language has been different all year'. Many believe Rosberg hasn't been the same since Hamilton turned the public relations tables on him at Spa 14 months ago.
"It's the worst thing to be my team-mate," said Hamilton midweek in a boast deftly disguised as a statement of sympathy. Talk is already stirring of Rosberg requiring a change of scenery.The knowing looks and head shakes of Niki Lauda and Toto Wolff following Rosberg's unforced error last Sunday may become as symbolic as Hamilton's over-the-shoulder look back at his broken-down McLaren in Singapore in 2012. Mercedes are bound to already being keeping tabs on Max Verstappen and Rosberg, having proved his worth a year ago, suddenly finds himself bereft of a rebuttal. If Rosberg cannot slow down the Hamilton juggernaut over the next three races - as much for his own self-confidence as anything else - then cap-spats will be the least of his concerns.
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As it currently stands, Rosberg trails Sebastian Vettel in the Drivers' Championship, a damning indictment of his performances this year given that the Mercedes W06 has consistently been a second per lap quicker than Ferrari - or at least it has been in Hamilton's hands.
Rosberg's speed hasn't gone entirely missing, as illustrated by his recent run of three successive pole positions. But the fact that, armed with the fastest car on the grid, he has only won three races - and his Monaco victory was nothing more than an aberration - is indefensible. His attempt at a 2016 fightback starts here. If it doesn't, with a long winter to dwell on his Annus horribilis, there may be no turning back.
Hamilton still has records to chase
The world championship has been retained but the world champion's hunger has not been sated. Not a bit of it. "This is just the beginning," he told reporters on the night of his coronation. For a driver who professes not to pay too much attention to records and his standing therein, question Hamilton closely and he will invariably know precisely where he fits into F1's most prestigious lists.
Immediately on the horizon will be claiming his 50th F1 pole position, a half century which only Michael Schumacher and Ayrton Senna have previously completed. Nor does Hamilton need to be a keen student of F1 history to realise the importance of maximising every opportunity: at the end of his equally-dominant championship season in 2013, Sebastian Vettel rounded off the campaign with nine successive victories - greed which was just as well given that Sebastian would have to wait another 18 months for his next.
Most wins in a single season
Driver Season Wins
Michael Schumacher 2004 13
Sebastian Vettel 2013 13
Michael Schumacher 2002 11
Sebastian Vettel 2011 11
Lewis Hamilton 2014 11
Lewis Hamilton 2015* season ongoing 10
It would be too much to argue that the final three races of 2015 are important to Hamilton's reputation or, even accepting the truism that how a driver ends a season can't often define how he starts the next, that it will be important for 2016. But as discussed above, he'll want to keep Rosberg down and subservient. Nor is it in his nature to ease off. Hamilton's flat-out determination to win the title at the first opportunity last week was instructive for what it revealed about Hamilton as a competitive animal. "Of course I could have gone on to other races but for me, I'm kind of like 'now!'" Hamilton remarked. "It was so close that I could smell it."
This is a driver who doesn't know how to ease up or play it safe. Already the first driver in F1 history to win ten or more races in successive years, expect no let up from Hamilton over the next month - and nor should there be.
Alonso has points to prove against Button
"Rating a driver is much more than the titles," observed Fernando Alonso during his recent eulogy of Lewis Hamilton.
One measurement which the Spaniard might have in mind is a driver's record vis a vis his team-mate, a barometer which happens to shine an especially flattering light on Alonso.
Never once has Alonso ever finished a F1 season - and he's competed in 14 of them - with a points deficit to his team-mate. He's drawn a couple - his first, when scoring a point in the Minardi was impossible and, rather more famously, when he drew on points with then-rookie Hamilton - but his record doesn't contain a single defeat.
Except, as it stand with three races to go, this season, because Fernando currently trails Jenson Button by five points.
In the grand scheme of this year's championship, it's not much; Hamilton currently has 76 to spare at the summit. But Alonso is a driver obsessed by numbers and he will regard overhauling Button as a matter of honour. Given that he reputedly earns twice as much as Button even after the Englishman recently secured himself a hefty pay-rise, and has been particularly outspoken in his criticism of Honda, overtaking Button is also the least he could do to keep up his end of the bargain.
Who'll be top dog at each team?
The Drivers' Championship might be over, but a number of fights to be the number one driver within a team is still very much alive up and down the grid both on Saturdays and Sundays.
With three races remaining, the Williams drivers can barely be separated with Valtteri Bottas and Felipe Massa tied on eight qualifying wins a piece. The Finn is fractionally ahead in the Drivers' Championship, with a two-point advantage over the Brazilian.
At McLaren the qualifying battle is still alive with Fernando Alonso leading Jenson Button 7-6 in the 13 sessions both have contested. On a Sunday, Button has finished ahead of Alonso nine times to five and that has translated into a five-point lead in the standings.
The battle of the rookies at Toro Rosso looks set to go to the wire having ebbed and flowed all season. Carlos Sainz currently leads the qualifying battle 8-6, but Max Verstappen has a 27-point advantage in the Drivers' Championship.
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Sauber's Felipe Nasr has out-raced his team-mate 10-5 this year, scoring 18 more points, but he and Marcus Ericsson are tied on eight wins apiece in their qualifying head-to-head.
And at the back of the grid, Will Stevens currently enjoys a 2-1 advantage over Manor team-mate Alexander Rossi in qualifying, with two races remaining in that battle. Rossi has already won the race fight, boasting a 3-0 scoreline - although at the US GP, Stevens was punted out of the race by the American.
Against Roberto Merhi, Stevens has won the qualifying battle which currently stands at 8-3. The British driver could tie the race fight at six apiece if he beats Merhi when the pair go head-to-head once more at the season finale in Abu Dhabi.
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